Shinzo Abe ធ្វើឃាត; សមរភូមិបន្តរបស់ចក្រភពអង់គ្លេសចាប់ផ្តើម
In the race for prime minister, the war in Ukraine has helped catapult one man to frontrunner status.
After Boris, Who Comes Next?
Now that Boris Johnson has announced his intention to resign following a scandal-filled tenure as prime minister, attention is turning to who will replace the British leader.
Predicting who will be the next occupant of 10 Downing Street following a resignation is a fickle business. After David Cameron resigned in 2016 following Britain’s Brexit vote, Johnson was the favorite to succeed him. He ultimately ruled himself out of the running then, thus paving the way for Theresa May’s tumultuous premiership.
Today there is no one of Johnson’s public stature waiting in the wings, but outside forces—particularly the war in Ukraine—have helped set the tone of the race.
Although Johnson helped shield himself from domestic criticism through his full-throated support of Ukraine, the main beneficiary of that policy may be his Defense Secretary Ben Wallace.
Wallace is ranked as the current favorite by British betting companies and presents a more reserved personality after the bombast of Johnson. That seems to go down fine with the Conservative Party’s membership: A recent poll of those members shows Wallace topping the list of contenders, albeit with just 13 percent support.
Crucially, considering Conservative Party rules which make the final decision a two-horse race, Wallace is the clear choice of party members in head-to-head contests, according to the poll.
If selected he would become the first prime minister to have served in the military since 1976, when Labour’s James Callaghan took office. His elevation would likely mean more of the same on Ukraine, given that Wallace was the architect of Britain’s Ukraine strategy, as Elizabeth Braw wrote in Foreign Policy on Wednesday.
As Braw writes, minister for trade policy Penny Mordaunt (second place in the Conservative membership poll) and Tom Tugendhat (considered an outside bet) fill out a roster of candidates with military experience who can offer the country serious policy expertise in the wake of Johnson’s scandal-plagued government. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss still considers herself an option, judging by her early departure from the G-20 ministerial meeting in Bali to make her case at home.
Following behind Wallace is Rishi Sunak, the former finance minister who, along with outgoing health minister Sajid Javid, helped secure Johnson’s downfall with their resignations earlier this week.
Sunak has swung from internet meme status to frontrunner to his position today as a serious, but bruised, contender for the top job. (Sunak’s image was badly damaged earlier this year over a scandal involving his wealthy wife’s non-domiciled tax status.)
Sunak does have one ace up his sleeve if he does go against Wallace: His support for the 2016 Brexit referendum. Wallace’s position back then in the Remain camp could damage him in a Conservative Party increasingly at the whims of its Euroskeptic faction.
That won’t keep Sunak free from the sniping of different factions, however. Johnson loyalist Jacob Rees-Mogg took a chance yesterday to land a blow against him, describing Sunak as “not a successful chancellor” who was “not alert to the inflationary problem.”
While his positions on Brexit mean those in Dublin, Brussels, and perhaps Washington may not lament Johnson’s departure, one European leader is sad to see the prime minister head to the exit. Johnson reportedly called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after his public announcement to assure him that military aid to Kyiv would not stop.
Like a latter-day David Hasselhoff, Johnson has earned hero status with Ukrainians while becoming a punchline almost everywhere else. “We all heard this news with sadness. Not only me, but also the entire Ukrainian society, which is very sympathetic to you,” Zelensky said in a statement. Though Johnson may not get memorialized so quickly in his home country, the town of Fontanka, near Odesa, has already named a street after him.
What We’re Following Today
Shinzo Abe assassinated. Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot in the Japanese city of Nara on Friday morning in the chest and neck. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called the shooting “barbaric and malicious” and prayed for Abe’s survival earlier on Friday while he was in critical condition and receiving treatment for cardiopulmonary arrest at a nearby hospital. At approximately 6 p.m. Tokyo time, authorities announced that Abe had died.
The assassin is reportedly a disgruntled former member of Japan’s maritime self-defense force who told police he was frustrated with Abe and wished to kill him. Such gun violence is rare in Japan where gun laws are extremely strict; the weapon used appeared to be a homemade firearm.
Blinken meets Wang. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi today on the margins of the G-20 ministerial meeting in Bali. The two men last met in October at a G-20 meeting in Italy. Blinken continues his Asia travels through the weekend with a visit to Thailand where he’s expected to meet with Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai.
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