ជាមួយនឹងដំណើរទេសចរណ៍ 'ប្រវត្តិសាស្ត្រ' របស់គាត់ លោក Trump បានដាក់អំណាចរបស់សហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកឡើងវិញនៅមជ្ឈិមបូព៌ា

 In reasserting the US in the centre of the Middle East’s strategic calculus, Trump also weakens the leverage and influence of Russia and China

US President Donald Trump made his first overseas visit in his second term with a whistle-stop tour to the Middle East which took him to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The visit that concluded on May 16, apart from triggering a controversy over Qatar’s offer to give a luxury plane to Trump, has led to several presidential announcements that radically alter long-held US policies towards the region. If realised, these will result in a dramatic churn in regional geopolitics, with significant implications for major powers such as China.

On the first leg of the tour in Riyadh, Trump said he would order the lifting of all US sanctions on Syria, which date back 46 years – an announcement that reportedly caught senior American officials by surprise. But that is vintage Trump with his mercurial policy flourishes.

Then in Doha, Trump declared that the United States was very close to securing a deal with Iran over its controversial nuclear weapons programme, claiming Tehran had “sort of agreed to the terms”.

It may be recalled that in 2018, during Trump’s first term, he dramatically pulled the US out of the Iran nuclear deal that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had painstakingly put together with other leaders of the UN Security Council permanent members (China, France, Russia and Britain), as well as Germany and the European Union.

At that time, Trump called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) “a horrible one-sided deal that should have never ever been made”, saying: “It didn’t bring calm. It didn’t bring peace. And it never will.”

Seven years later, catching his regional interlocutors by surprise again, Trump is now claiming “very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace”, and promising that Iran can take the “very, very nice step” offered or “there is the violent step”. Tehran has responded in a tentatively positive manner – much to Israel’s dismay – indicating a willingness to give up its stockpile of enriched uranium if its conditions are met.

Israel was not on Trump’s itinerary, much to Tel Aviv’s disappointment, and this may be seen as a case of the US rearranging its relationship with the Netanyahu government. The possibility of a US-Iran rapprochement has been met with deep concern in Israel and if this does happen and the Iran-Saudi relationship is stabilised under US aegis, the Middle East would be transformed in a tectonic manner.

The first sign of a major shift in regional policy came before Trump’s Middle East tour. On May 6, Trump abruptly announced an end to the US bombing of the Houthi rebel group in Yemen after they agreed to stop disrupting vital shipping routes in the Middle East. The ceasefire agreement, which Oman said it helped to broker, was an important step in restoring normalcy in global shipping trade and commerce.

Apart from the surprise US policy swings in the regional security and geopolitical spectrum, a slew of major financial deals was garnered by Trump during his tour. If realised in their entirety, the deals in this “historic collaboration” will be worth around US$2 trillion, according to the White House. The agreements with Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia include major projects in the defence and aviation sectors, in semiconductor manufacturing and in artificial intelligence.

The White House’s celebratory statement of Trump’s Middle Eastern tour noted “a US$600 billion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia, a US$1.2 trillion economic exchange agreement with Qatar, US$243.5 billion in US-Qatar commercial and defence deals and US$200 billion in US-United Arab Emirates commercial deals”.

Trump’s tour has effectively repositioned the US as a major power in the strategic calculus of the Middle East and reduced the leverage and influence that Russia and, more recently, China have acquired there. How long this may last is uncertain, however, given Trump’s fickle nature.

Syria is an example where decades of estrangement from the US going back to 1979 (when Syria was designated a state sponsor of terrorism) led to Moscow consolidating its position there – both during the Cold War as part of the Soviet Union footprint and afterwards, when Russia inherited the influence over Damascus and retained it.

By meeting new Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda militant, alongside Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and – joining the meeting virtually – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Trump laid the foundation for a new geopolitical architecture in the Middle East, thereby blunting the inroads made by other strategic interlocutors.

China has emerged as a quiet but significant power in the affairs of the region with the manner in which it enabled the normalisation of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023. Given the hydrocarbon relevance the Middle East has for a major oil importer like China and the importance of the region for the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has steadily deepened its ties with the energy-rich states there, which are also potential investors with deep pockets.

The Trump visit will lead to a major fiscal outflow from the Middle East to the US, along with an advanced technology cooperation programme in vital areas such as semiconductors. Cumulatively, this visit could be seen as one where Trump may have reduced the Chinese footprint in the Middle East, but many of these announcements have to be translated into tangible action and results – and that could prove to be a challenge.

SCMP