Machiavelli របស់កម្ពុជាលើទន្លេមេគង្គធ្វើកូដកម្មម្តងទៀត

 By leaking a recording of a phone call with Thailand’s prime minister, Hun Sen has thrown an incendiary into Thai domestic politics.

 

 

Some of Donald Trump’s more sycophantic frotters claim that he’s a master of “4-D Chess,” that his every contradictory and nonsensical utterance is actually a well-schemed distraction on the path to a master goal. Utter nonsense. But there is a 4-D Chess Grandmaster in Hun Sen, Cambodia’s former long-time ruler. For years, I’ve wanted to write a lengthy study of Hun Sen Praxis, a look at how he has managed to trick so many of his opponents into shooting themselves in the foot. If I get around to it, I would title it, “Machiavelli on the Mekong.”

His skillful manipulation was on offer again on June 18, when he leaked parts of a phone conversation he had days earlier with Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Obviously unaware that Hun Sen was recording their chat, Paetongtarn called Hun Sen “uncle”; said she would “take care of whatever” he needed and apologized for turning off water and electricity supply into Cambodia; said that she hadn’t responded to Hun Sen’s provocative Facebook posts because she “loves and respects him”; and confirmed she would reopen border trade (which has been closed for days because of ongoing border disputes).

Most importantly, Paetongtarn claimed that the Thai army commander responsible for the disputed border areas was an “opponent” of her government, insinuating that some generals are using the border disputes for political purposes. She even accused some generals of “saying things that aren’t beneficial to the country.” Paetongtarn and her camp responded angrily to the leak, correctly accusing Hun Sen of violating trust and basic diplomatic norms and of leaking the recording “to boost his popularity without regard for the impact on bilateral ties.” In response, Hun Sen claimed he regularly recorded conversations to avoid “misunderstanding or misrepresentation.”

Why did Hun Sen do this? First, to show that he and his ruling family have no foreign allies. For ages, Hun Sen has called former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (Paetongtarn’s father) his “god-brother.” He gave refuge to Thaksin after the latter was ousted by the military in 2006 and appointed him an advisor. Now, however, through this leaked recording, Hun Sen has thrown Paetongtarn (and, by extension, Thaksin) under the bus. It has proven the Thai militarists and nationalists critical of Paetongtarn to be right: she was not only overly deferential to Hun Sen, a foreign leader, but she slandered her own military generals in a private conversation with a family friend and former premier of another country.

Moreover, it proves her critics right in another way: she is simply too inexperienced and naïve to lead a government. If Paetongtarn has an advisor worth his salt, he would have, first, advised her not to say such things to foreign official at a time when their two countries are on the brink of conflict, and, second, advised her not to say such things in a phone call with Hun Sen. Everyone (including this foreign journalist) knows that he has a history of recording his conversations and leaking them when he needs to damage the reputation of the person he was talking to.

One cannot see how Paetongtarn’s government will survive this. Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the leader of the opposition People’s Party, the largest party in parliament, has called on Paetongtarn to resign and go for new elections. The Bhumjaithai party, the second largest party in Paetongtarn’s coalition, with 69 seats in the House of Representatives, quit the Pheu Thai-led coalition on Wednesday because of the leaked recordings, accusing her of “compromising Thailand’s honor, national dignity, the people, and the military.” At the time of writing, I don’t know if the Democrat Party and the Chart Thai Pattana Party will follow the Bhumjaithai party out of the coalition, although that’s probable.

Paetongtarn doesn’t usually get much right (as this example shows), but she correctly said that Hun Sen leaked the recording to massively improve his hand domestically. Some opposition voices have accused him of being too close to the Shinawatras, and that this friendship has meant he has not forcefully pressed Cambodia’s sovereignty claims against Thailand, such as the disputed ownership of Koh Kood, an island in the Gulf of Thailand. (The allegation goes that Hun Sen and Thaksin want to resurrect an old deal they agreed decades ago that would allow Thailand to control the island but would give Cambodia some proceeds if oil and gas are discovered around it.) Now, Hun Sen has shown that he’s willing to jeopardize the political careers of the Shinawatras, and potentially the liberty of Thaksin, his “god-brother.”

Moreover, Hun Sen has done this for the benefit of Cambodia. After all, the consequences of the leaked phone call greatly improve Cambodia’s hand. Phnom Penh now has its chips lined up. Earlier this week, it formally sent documents to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) regarding the four disputed areas along the border. The Cambodian government says this should be the principal means of resolution, while Bangkok has vehemently opposed international arbitration. I’ve argued that a solution to the ongoing border disputes will probably be resolved by bilateral discussions, but having the ICJ pathway in the back pocket gives Phnom Penh leverage it wouldn’t have previously had.

Now, Hun Sen has chucked an incendiary into Thai politics. The arithmetic means the militarists and nationalists who want Bangkok to take a harder line against Cambodia don’t have the seats in parliament to form a government by themselves. The Pheu Thai-led coalition might survive if there are no more quitters, but if it lingers on, it will be a lame duck, unable to control parliament and widely suspected of disloyalty to the military, meaning that Bangkok has no real authority in any future bilateral talks with Cambodia over the border disputes. Possibly, the Thai government will collapse, and a new coalition can be fashioned (improbable) or fresh elections will be called (more likely). In either case, Bangkok will be distracted from the border tensions by domestic politics.

There’s another consequence, too. Not only does it throw Thailand’s civilian government under the bus, but it also discredits the Thai military. By bringing the border disputes to the ICJ, Phnom Penh wants to get international support on Cambodia’s side. We’re the ones who are abiding by international law, trying to find a legal, peaceful resolution, it says. As I pointed out in my previous column, it’s far from clear that Phnom Penh can rally international support, with China and ASEAN wanting to be neutral and the United States more likely to favor Thailand.

However, read most international media reports about the leaked phone call and notice one question that undercuts most of the analysis: will there be another military coup in Thailand? The South China Morning Post ran an article yesterday headlined, “Will a leaked phone call lead to a Thailand coup?” Opposition leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut has called for fresh elections expressly to avoid yet another coup. The commander in chief of the army, Gen. Pana Klaewplodthuk, was asked about this by reporters this week and had to deny any possibility of a coup.

What’s the implication? It makes Thailand look like an unstable country, where some generals are once again plotting against the civilian government. Rather than discussing the border tensions, the media and foreign governments will now discuss the political chaos in Bangkok. Indeed, Hun Sen has just shown that even the Thai prime minister thinks some generals are disloyal to the state and are using the Cambodia-Thailand tensions to bolster their own political ambitions.

Moreover, if Paetongtarn’s government now escalates the border tensions, it will be seen as the civilian government merely giving in to the war-mongering of the military and Paetongtarn’s government cynically using militaristic tactics to try to regain some integrity and stability. In other words, here is proof, Phnom Penh and its supporters will say, that Cambodia is simply a victim of Thai generals whipping up the border conflict for their own putschist goals and of a Thai government escalating the tensions for its own political survival. (As the Phnom Penh Post paraphrased one Cambodian academic on Thursday, “the Cambodia-Thailand border issue is unlikely to ease soon, as it appears to have become a ‘hostage’ to Thailand’s internal politics.”)

I don’t know if Hun Sen intended this by leaking the phone call, but if he did, it was a genius stroke, a truly Machiavellian move.