លោក Netanyahu រឹតបន្តឹងការកាន់កាប់តំបន់ Gaza នៅពេលដែលសិទ្ធិរបស់អ៊ីស្រាអែលបើកមកលើគាត់

Facing rebellion from his own base and economic strain after the Gaza ceasefire, Netanyahu bets on renewed military pressure to save his leadership and legacy.

executive summary

 1.Benjamin Netanyahu, facing internal right-wing rivals rather than the traditional left-center opposition, is tightening military pressure on Hamas to project strength and secure his political survival.

2.A brief post-ceasefire surge in support lifted Likud to its best polling since the Gaza war began, yet Netanyahu still falls short of a governing majority—leaving his position precariously dependent on fragile coalition partners.

3.Israel’s wartime economy shows deep strain: tourism has collapsed, growth has stalled, and investor confidence is slipping even as defense exports and military spending surge to record levels.

4.Netanyahu’s coalition—bound by uneasy deals with ultra-Orthodox and far-right factions—is riven by disputes over army drafts, judicial reforms, and extremist policy demands that threaten to unravel the government at any moment.

5.To preserve his image as “Mr. Security” amid corruption trials and waning trust, Netanyahu is expected to sustain controlled military escalation in Gaza rather than risk elections or full-scale war.

6.Israel stands at a crossroads: either Netanyahu reasserts control through measured force and political maneuvering, or a Bennett-led right-wing alternative emerges—offering continuity in security policy but uncertain stability.

Netanyahu’s Strategy and Israel’s Political Outlook

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to call early elections anytime soon. Instead, he is expected to tighten military pressure on Hamas in Gaza to reinforce his political position and prevent rivals from unseating him.

His main threat now comes not from the left or center, but from within Israel’s own right wing—a growing bloc led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.

This coalition opposes Netanyahu personally but shares many of his conservative and security-focused views.

By appearing strong on national defense, Netanyahu hopes to outmaneuver this challenge and maintain his reputation as Israel’s most experienced and decisive leader on security issues.

Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party has seen a modest rise in public support since two major developments: the Oct. 8 announcement of the first phase of a Hamas-Israel ceasefire and the Oct. 13 release of the final 20 living hostages.

These events briefly restored some faith in the government’s ability to deliver results after months of criticism over its handling of the war.

Before the ceasefire, polls suggested that Likud would win about 25 of the Knesset’s 120 seats if elections were held immediately.

But a new poll from Zman Yisrael on Oct. 16 showed Likud winning 34 seats, with its likely allies gaining another 25. Together they would hold 59 seats—just two short of the 61 required for a majority.

The anti-Netanyahu bloc led by Bennett would hold 53 seats, with Arab parties taking the remaining eight.

These results mark Netanyahu’s strongest showing since the Gaza war began on Oct. 7, 2023, though he still lacks a clear path to a stable majority.

Israel’s political system makes governing difficult even in calm times.

Members of the Knesset are elected through a system of proportional representation, meaning that voters choose parties rather than individual candidates.

After elections, the Israeli president invites the leader of the largest party to try to form a governing coalition within 28 days.

Because no single party ever wins a majority, coalitions are the norm—and often fragile.

If the first leader fails to form a coalition, the president gives another member of the Knesset a chance.

This system encourages alliances between ideologically diverse partners, which can easily fracture under pressure.

Netanyahu’s current coalition is held together by a complex web of deals with ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties.

In June 2025, a dispute erupted over whether yeshiva students—ultra-Orthodox men studying in religious schools—The disagreement nearly brought down the government, but Netanyahu narrowly survived a no-confidence vote after striking a last-minute compromise on the issue.

Under Israeli law, the Knesset must wait six months before attempting another no-confidence vote, meaning the next opportunity could come in December 2025.

For now, this buys Netanyahu some time, but not stability.

Although Netanyahu’s approval ratings improved after the ceasefire and hostage release, his government’s broader popularity remains low.

Over the past year, his administration has been battered by controversy over its proposed judicial reforms, its management of the Gaza war, and the deepening economic problems linked to the conflict.

Many Israelis blame Netanyahu for intelligence failures that allowed Hamas to launch its surprise attack in October 2023 and for lacking a clear long-term plan to defeat the group.

Even his successes—such as the eventual release of hostages—came only after intense pressure from the United States, leaving many Israelis questioning his leadership.

Israel’s Economy Weakens Amid Gaza War Impact

The war has also taken a heavy toll on Israel’s economy. While the International Monetary Fund still expects modest growth of about 2.5% in 2025, that figure masks severe disruptions across key sectors.

Tourism, which once made up roughly 3% of the economy, has collapsed—with foreign arrivals down by nearly 70% between 2023 and 2024.

The construction and agricultural sectors have also suffered because Israel revoked work permits for Gazan laborers and sharply limited permits for Palestinians from the West Bank.

Thousands of reservists called up for military service remain absent from their regular jobs, slowing business activity and innovation.

Between April and June 2025, the economy contracted by 3.5%, marking the second quarterly decline since the war began.

International credit agency S&P downgraded Israel’s credit rating, warning that ongoing conflict and political instability are eroding investor confidence.

Some sectors, however, are growing

Defense exports—particularly to Europe—rose 13% between 2023 and 2024, reaching $15 billion, as demand for Israeli drones, missile systems, and intelligence technology increased.

But these gains are not enough to offset losses elsewhere.

Since early 2022, about 125,000 Israelis have emigrated, citing political instability, the high cost of living, and security fears.

The government has also approved a massive $12.5 billion increase in defense spending through 2026, pushing military expenditures to roughly 9% of GDP—one of the highest levels in the developed world.

This will likely continue for years,squeezing funding for civillian programs.

Netanyahu Faces Coalition Strains and political Risk 

Despite the short-term rise in support,Netanyahu is unlkely to risk early elections.

The bump in popularity after the ceasefire is likely temporary. Once the sense of relief fades, public frustration over corruption, inequality, and the ongoing conflict is expected to return.

His coalition partners, meanwhile, remain unpredictable. The ultra-Orthodox parties are angry over the Supreme Court’s decision requiring yeshiva students to serve in the army, while far-right ministers such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir are pushing for even more aggressive policies—including annexing parts of Gaza and the West Bank.

Ben Gvir has repeatedly threatened to quit the government or block its legislation unless his demands are met.

In October 2025, for example, he warned he would stop voting with the coalition unless the Knesset advanced a bill introducing the death penalty for convicted terrorists.

Around the same time, the Shas party briefly resigned from its government posts to protest the unresolved draft issue.

These recurring disputes illustrate just how fragile Netanyahu’s coalition remains.

Before the ceasefire, two-thirds of Israelis wanted the war to end, mainly because they believed that doing so would help secure the release of hostages. But many others supported continuing the fight until Hamas was destroyed.

Now that all surviving hostages have been released, the humanitarian argument for peace has weakened, though the emotional and economic exhaustion of the public remains a powerful constraint on further fighting.

Rising cases of post-traumatic stress disorder among soldiers and reservists, along with growing anti-government protests, show that the public’s patience is wearing thin.

Israel-Gaza onflict Forecast and Netanyahu strategy

Given these pressures, Netanyhau's most likely strategy is to gradually escalate military perations against Hamas rather than lauch a full-scale offensive.

This allows him to maintain the image of a strong leader without risking the political fallout of a major war.

He can also use any Hamas violations of the ceasefire—such as renewed rocket attacks or delays in returning hostages’ remains—to justify renewed military action.

His rhetoric since the ceasefire has already hinted that the fighting is “not over.”

For Netanyahu, resuming some level of combat could serve multiple political goals: rallying his right-wing base, silencing critics, and deflecting attention from his ongoing corruption trial, which has dragged on since 2020.

While his reputation as “Mr. Security” has been badly damaged by the Oct. 7 attacks, Netanyahu continues to frame himself as the only leader capable of defending Israel in a dangerous region.

If his popularity declines again, he may intensify military operations in Gaza to remind voters of his toughness—even if completely eradicating Hamas is widely seen as unrealistic.

More likely, Israel would try to seize additional territory, weaken Hamas’s military infrastructure, and force its leaders into exile, claiming a partial victory.

If Netanyahu strategy fails to restore his standing,Bennett's right-wing anti-Netanyahu bloc could become the leading alternative.

A Bennett-led government would likely maintain a hard line on Hamas and Iran but might work more closely with the United States and other Western Partners.

Bennett has positioned himself as more pragmatic than Netanyahu-hawkish on security but more disciplilned and cooperative internationally.

His previous government in 2021 showed that such coalitions can take power but also hightlighted their fragility: internal divisions led to its collapse in less than two years.

Meanwhile, opposition leader Yair Lapid has offered to temporarily support Netanyahu’s government in the Knesset if far-right members withdraw from the coalition, hoping to prevent a total collapse during wartime. However, such cooperation would likely be short-lived and politically costly for both sides.

Netanyahu’s legal troubles also continue to hang over him. He faces three corruption cases involving charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust.

While some of his allies—including U.S. President Donald Trump—have privately urged Israel’s president to pardon him, such a move would be explosive and could further divide the country.

For many Israelis, the perception that Netanyahu is clinging to power to avoid legal consequences remains a key reason for opposing him.

Future of Israel Politics and Netanyahu's Leadership 

In the long run, Israel's political and social stability will depend on how the government manages both the Gaza conflict and the deep divisions within Israeli society.

Netanyahu has survived numerous political crises in his decades-long career, often by turning threats into opportunities and using national security crises to rally public support.

Yet the current challenges—from economic stagnation to moral exhaustion and declining trust in institutions—are more complex than ever.

If elections take place as scheduled in 2026, Netanyahu’s position will depend on whether Israelis believe he can still deliver security and stability after years of war and controversy.

Should he lose, a Bennett-led coalition—potentially supported by centrist and religious factions—would likely continue many of Netanyahu’s core security policies but adopt a more cooperative tone with Washington.

Such a government could, however, prove as unstable as the one that briefly replaced Netanyahu in 2021, collapsing under the weight of its internal contradictions.

In the meantime, Netanyahu is likely to stay the course: managing the ceasefire delicately, keeping his coalition intact, and using controlled military pressure on Hamas to project strength. His political survival may depend on convincing Israelis that, despite everything, there is still no viable alternative to his leadership.

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