តើយុទ្ធសាស្ត្រសន្តិសុខជាតិរបស់សហរដ្ឋអាមេរិកប៉ះពាល់ដល់ប្រទេសវៀតណាមយ៉ាងដូចម្តេច?

 When the US announced its new National Security Strategy, Vietnam was not mentioned by name as a separate entity but only indirectly through broader concepts such as "Indo-Pacific," "ASEAN," or "middle-level partners."

When the US announced its new National Security Strategy (NSS 2025), Vietnam was not mentioned by name as a separate entity but only indirectly through broader concepts such as “Indo-Pacific,” “ASEAN,” or “middle-level partners.” However, this absence does not mean that Vietnam is outside the scope of the document’s impact. On the contrary, the NSS is restructuring the regional strategic environment in a way that makes it difficult for Vietnam to remain outside.

The National Security Strategy 2025 (NSS 2025) reflects a structural shift in U.S. strategic thinking. While the first two decades of the 21st century saw U.S. national security tied to the ambition of maintaining its role as the “global policeman,” the focus has now narrowed and clearly reoriented toward great power competition. China is identified as a systemic and long-term challenge, while Russia, though still dangerous, is primarily seen as a regional threat centered in the Euro-Atlantic space. More significantly, the new NSS no longer views military power as the sole pillar of national security but expands this concept to include economic, technological, supply chain, and institutional norms.

The direct consequence is that the strategic environment surrounding Vietnam is shrinking. The flexibility that once allowed middle-sized nations to exploit the international environment to maximize their interests is gradually shrinking as the US-China competition shifts from a shaping phase to a structuring phase. The South China Sea sovereignty dispute has become an example of one of the most sensitive intersections in the US strategic reshaping process. The US emphasis on freedom of navigation, opposition to coercive actions, and maintaining a strong military presence creates significant alignment with Vietnam’s interests. However, this alignment is conditional and asymmetrical. For the US, the South China Sea is a front in its pivot to the Indo-Pacific. For Vietnam, it is a matter of sovereignty and survival space that cannot be compromised. This difference in priorities means that any escalation risks pushing Vietnam into risks beyond initial calculations.

The NSS 2025 simultaneously reflects a significant shift in the US approach to Vietnam. From prioritizing assistance in economic reform, integration, and development, the US increasingly expects middle-sized nations to take a more proactive role in maintaining regional strategic balance. The upgrading of US-Vietnam relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2023 is not only a result of the ongoing bilateral relationship-building process but also reflects how the US is connecting points within a broader network of partners to disperse the burden of competition with China. For Vietnam, this opens opportunities to enhance its position and access strategic resources but also increases the risk of being drawn into geopolitical calculations that go beyond its direct interests.

Furthermore, the NSS 2025 identifies the South China Sea as a security challenge that the U.S. will actively focus on. This creates a strategic paradox for Vietnam. On the one hand, a deeper U.S. presence and engagement helps to restrain unilateral coercive actions from China, thereby indirectly strengthening the security environment on which Vietnam depends. Substantive forms of cooperation such as enhancing maritime capabilities, sharing information, and supporting maritime law enforcement are consistent with Vietnam’s self-defense national policy and its “four no’s” principle. On the other hand, this increased competition makes the security environment more fragile, as the line between deterrence and provocation becomes increasingly blurred.

The NSS 2025 also impacts Vietnam’s economic structure. As the US places economic security on par with national security, its supply chain restructuring strategy aimed at reducing dependence on China opens significant opportunities for Vietnam to attract capital and technology. However, these opportunities come with increasingly stringent requirements for standards and transparency. Since President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, global supply chains have become even more deeply “secured,” evidenced by tariffs that could reach 20% on goods from Vietnam, thereby increasing uncertainty in the investment environment.

The NSS 2025 also identifies high-tech sectors as key fronts of strategic competition, from semiconductors to artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. For Vietnam, deeper participation in technology value chains led by the US and its partners is a long-term development goal. However, the Vietnamese economy still shows close ties with China, both in trade and intermediate production inputs. This intertwining makes maintaining and expanding investment from large US technology corporations more complex, as concerns about technology leakage increase.

At the regional level, the National Security Strategy 2025 reaffirms ASEAN’s central role but at the same time promotes flexible, issue-based, and selective partnership mechanisms. This approach weakens the binding nature of traditional multilateral frameworks. For Vietnam, this is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, Vietnam can leverage open structures to increase its influence and protect its interests. On the other hand, institutional fragmentation weakens ASEAN’s coordinating and consultative role, forcing member states to shoulder more of the burden of balancing between major powers. In this context, Vietnam should not only benefit from ASEAN’s central role but also play a more proactive role in maintaining the cohesion and substance of the organization.

As the US defines great power competition as the new normal, it poses a fundamental challenge to the development model based on a stable international environment and deep integration that Vietnam has pursued for over three decades. The risks of trade disruption, technological fragmentation, and geopolitical instability are no longer hypothetical scenarios but real risks that need to be integrated into the policy-making process.

It is noteworthy that, despite the clear competitive nature of the US, it has left room for Vietnam to pursue strategic autonomy. However, this space does not exist by default but must be built through internal capabilities, diplomatic flexibility, and a strategic vision for development outlined by the Communist Party of Vietnam. In the long term, Vietnam’s greatest challenge lies not in avoiding a choice between aligning with the US or China, but in preventing its interests and policy choices from being dictated by the strategies of other major powers.

In summary, the National Security Strategy 2025 is forcing Vietnam to reposition itself within a rapidly changing and uncertain regional order. It opens up significant opportunities to enhance national standing but simultaneously increases the cost of strategic mistakes. The challenge for Vietnam is not simply to adapt but to proactively shape its role as a capable middle-income nation, leveraging cooperation without sacrificing autonomy. It is at this point that the NSS creates important implications, not through direct pressure, but by redefining the boundaries, and what Vietnam needs to pay attention to is understanding those implications in order to develop appropriate adaptive policies.

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