The Hidden Strategy Behind Israel and Iran Finally Revealed | prof Jiang Xueqin

 

00:00:00.240 Does Israel really want war with Iran?

00:00:02.480 Okay, that's the question people keep

00:00:03.919 asking. But I think the deeper issue is

00:00:06.160 that most people still misunderstand

00:00:08.080 what this conflict actually is because

00:00:10.639 people keep imagining this as a simple

00:00:12.480 hatred conflict. Israel hates Iran. Iran

00:00:15.759 hates Israel. End of story. But that's

00:00:18.240 not how states think. That's not how

00:00:20.400 civilizations behave. Countries do not

00:00:22.800 survive for decades in hostile regions

00:00:25.039 by operating emotionally. They survive

00:00:27.279 by calculating power, survival,

00:00:29.760 geography, and long-term strategic

00:00:32.079 positioning. And once you understand

00:00:33.920 that, the entire situation starts

00:00:36.000 looking very different. Iran does not

00:00:38.239 wake up every morning thinking about

00:00:40.239 destroying Israel. Iran wakes up every

00:00:42.640 morning thinking about survival. That is

00:00:44.640 the first principle here. Survival.

00:00:47.280 Everything else comes after that. Iran

00:00:49.520 is surrounded by American military

00:00:51.200 bases. Iraq, Syria, the Gulf,

00:00:54.800 Afghanistan for years, naval fleets

00:00:56.879 everywhere, economic sanctions,

00:00:59.120 assassinations, cyber warfare,

00:01:01.760 intelligence operations, the Iranian

00:01:03.920 regime understands very clearly that the

00:01:06.400 moment it makes a catastrophic strategic

00:01:08.640 mistake, the entire system could

00:01:10.880 collapse. Okay. So when people talk

00:01:13.520 about Iran like it's irrational, I think

00:01:15.920 they fundamentally misunderstand what

00:01:18.400 allows governments to survive under

00:01:20.320 pressure for this long. And honestly,

00:01:22.320 the same thing applies to Israel. Israel

00:01:24.640 is not irrational either. Israel

00:01:26.720 understands exactly what Iran is capable

00:01:28.799 of becoming if left unchecked. A fully

00:01:31.280 industrialized, technologically advanced

00:01:33.360 Iran with nuclear capability and

00:01:35.520 enormous regional influence would

00:01:37.520 permanently alter the balance of power

00:01:39.520 in the Middle East. Israel understands

00:01:41.759 that better than anyone. So the goal is

00:01:43.840 not necessarily destruction. The goal is

00:01:46.000 management, containment, delay,

00:01:48.720 pressure, exhaustion. Keep Iran unstable

00:01:51.680 enough that it spends its energy

00:01:53.280 surviving instead of expanding. Okay?

00:01:55.520 And this is where the conversation

00:01:56.880 becomes much larger than religion

00:01:58.560 because people simplify the Middle East

00:02:00.399 into ancient hatred. Sunni versus Shia,

00:02:03.360 Muslims versus Jews, civilization clash.

00:02:06.079 But geopolitics is almost always about

00:02:08.399 systems of power beneath the ideological

00:02:10.639 language. Religion matters. Of course it

00:02:13.120 does. But religion also becomes the

00:02:15.520 mechanism through which deeper strategic

00:02:18.000 interests are organized. And if you

00:02:20.160 remove emotion from the equation for

00:02:22.000 just a second, you realize something

00:02:24.239 very important. Israel and Iran are both

00:02:26.800 acting rationally according to their own

00:02:28.800 perception of survival. Now, this is

00:02:30.800 where America enters the picture because

00:02:32.959 without America, the entire regional

00:02:34.959 equation changes immediately. Israel's

00:02:37.360 military superiority is deeply connected

00:02:39.760 to American financial support,

00:02:41.760 intelligence support, diplomatic

00:02:43.680 protection, and technological

00:02:45.360 integration. Iran understands this

00:02:47.680 perfectly, which means from the Iranian

00:02:49.840 perspective, Israel is not simply

00:02:51.519 Israel. Israel is the forward operating

00:02:54.000 structure of the American order in the

00:02:55.840 Middle East. That distinction changes

00:02:58.080 everything. Okay? Because once you

00:03:00.560 understand that, then you realize the

00:03:02.400 conflict is not fundamentally about

00:03:04.319 territory. It is about regional

00:03:06.480 architecture. Who gets to define the

00:03:08.480 Middle East for the next 100 years? And

00:03:10.959 honestly, I think people underestimate

00:03:12.959 how much the Gulf States matter here.

00:03:14.959 Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar. These

00:03:18.480 countries are not side characters in

00:03:20.159 this story. They are central to it,

00:03:22.560 especially the UAE. Because the UAE

00:03:25.200 represents something extremely dangerous

00:03:26.879 from the Iranian perspective. The UAE

00:03:29.680 represents a successful alternative

00:03:31.440 model for the region. Wealthy,

00:03:33.680 modernized, globally connected, open to

00:03:36.480 western capital, building trade

00:03:38.080 networks, tourism, artificial

00:03:40.000 intelligence, finance, infrastructure.

00:03:42.879 Okay. The UAE is effectively presenting

00:03:46.000 the Muslim world with a competing

00:03:47.760 civilizational vision. And this matters

00:03:50.000 psychologically far more than people

00:03:51.519 realize because ideological competition

00:03:54.080 becomes much more dangerous when it

00:03:55.760 comes from societies that share cultural

00:03:57.920 and religious roots. Iran can frame

00:04:00.159 Israel as foreign, as external, as

00:04:02.879 western. But the Gulf States are

00:04:04.799 different. The Gulf States demonstrate

00:04:07.200 that a Muslim society can integrate with

00:04:09.920 the global economy without adopting the

00:04:12.480 revolutionary model Iran promotes. And

00:04:15.200 from Thran's perspective, that creates a

00:04:17.358 direct threat to Iran's long-term

00:04:19.199 ideological influence across the region.

00:04:21.600 Now, think about what this means

00:04:23.040 strategically. Iran funds proxies across

00:04:25.759 multiple countries, Lebanon, Syria,

00:04:28.960 Iraq, Yemen. Not because Iran randomly

00:04:32.320 enjoys chaos, but because strategic

00:04:34.639 depth is how weaker powers survive

00:04:37.120 against stronger coalitions. Okay? If

00:04:40.000 your enemies can surround you

00:04:41.440 conventionally, then you create

00:04:43.040 influence networks that force them to

00:04:45.120 fight asymmetrically. This is basic

00:04:47.360 geopolitical logic and Israel

00:04:49.280 understands this as well. Which is why

00:04:51.440 Israel constantly targets supply chains,

00:04:53.919 commanders, missile programs,

00:04:55.440 infrastructure, intelligence routes. The

00:04:57.680 objective is not immediate victory. The

00:04:59.680 objective is gradual degradation over

00:05:01.680 time. And honestly, modern war itself

00:05:04.240 has changed in ways most people still

00:05:06.320 don't fully understand. People imagine

00:05:08.560 wars the way they looked in the 20th

00:05:10.479 century. Massive invasions, armies

00:05:12.960 crossing borders, flags being planted.

00:05:15.280 But modern conflict is increasingly

00:05:17.120 economic, technological,

00:05:18.960 informationational, and psychological

00:05:20.800 simultaneously. You can a

00:05:23.039 country without fully invading it. You

00:05:25.039 can destroy energy systems, banking

00:05:27.039 systems, ports, infrastructure, cyber

00:05:30.080 networks, shipping routes. You can make

00:05:32.720 normal life impossible without

00:05:34.240 technically conquering territory. And

00:05:36.400 this is why the Iran Israel conflict is

00:05:38.400 so dangerous because both sides are

00:05:40.560 operating inside a globalized system

00:05:43.039 where pressure spreads instantly across

00:05:45.360 the planet. Okay, think about oil for a

00:05:47.680 second. If a direct regional war erupts

00:05:50.000 seriously, energy markets explode

00:05:52.080 overnight. Insurance costs for shipping

00:05:54.160 through the Strait of Hormuz skyrocket.

00:05:56.400 European economies suffer immediately.

00:05:58.560 Asian manufacturing suffers immediately.

00:06:00.800 Inflation surges globally. Food prices

00:06:03.039 rise. Governments destabilize. Financial

00:06:05.840 markets panic and this is why the world

00:06:08.160 watches every missile strike so

00:06:10.319 nervously because everyone understands

00:06:12.560 that a regional escalation could trigger

00:06:15.440 worldwide economic consequences within

00:06:18.000 days. But underneath all of this is

00:06:20.240 something even larger. The global order

00:06:22.400 itself is becoming unstable. And I think

00:06:25.039 this is the real hidden strategy people

00:06:26.800 fail to see. Israel and Iran are both

00:06:29.440 operating during a period where American

00:06:31.680 dominance no longer feels absolute. That

00:06:34.400 changes behavior dramatically because

00:06:36.319 throughout history, moments of

00:06:38.080 transition between global powers are

00:06:40.479 always the most dangerous periods. Okay?

00:06:43.600 When one empire is clearly dominant,

00:06:45.680 most countries behave cautiously because

00:06:47.680 the rules are understood. But when the

00:06:49.840 dominant power begins weakening while

00:06:52.080 rivals begin rising, everyone starts

00:06:54.400 recalculating simultaneously. Look at

00:06:57.120 China. China is expanding economically

00:06:59.759 across Africa, Latin America, Central

00:07:02.160 Asia, the Middle East. Look at Russia

00:07:04.479 becoming increasingly aggressive after

00:07:06.560 years of feeling strategically cornered.

00:07:08.880 Look at countries questioning the dollar

00:07:10.639 system itself. Countries building

00:07:12.639 alternative trade networks, alternative

00:07:14.800 payment systems, alternative alliances.

00:07:17.280 The world is slowly fragmenting into

00:07:19.199 competing blocks again. And during

00:07:21.039 periods like this, regional conflicts

00:07:22.960 become much more volatile because every

00:07:25.360 local struggle starts connecting into

00:07:27.360 the larger question of future global

00:07:29.680 power. Now, this is where history

00:07:31.440 becomes extremely important because

00:07:33.440 people often imagine the current world

00:07:35.280 order as something natural, but it isn't

00:07:37.919 natural. It was built carefully.

00:07:40.720 Gradually through war, finance,

00:07:42.960 industry, colonial extraction and global

00:07:44.800 trade systems. Over centuries, the

00:07:46.880 British Empire extracted enormous wealth

00:07:49.039 from India, Africa, and China. Entire

00:07:51.680 populations were reorganized

00:07:53.360 economically to fuel imperial expansion.

00:07:56.000 And eventually, much of that financial

00:07:57.759 power shifted toward the United States

00:08:00.160 as America industrialized into a

00:08:02.960 continental superpower. Okay, that

00:08:05.919 transition did not happen accidentally.

00:08:08.160 Capital follows power. infrastructure,

00:08:10.879 stability, industrial growth, strategic

00:08:13.759 geography. And over time, the United

00:08:16.080 States became the center of the

00:08:17.759 postworld war II financial order. The

00:08:20.319 dollar became the reserve currency.

00:08:22.400 American naval power secured trade

00:08:24.000 routes. American banks became central to

00:08:26.240 global finance. American military

00:08:28.319 alliances spread across Europe, Asia,

00:08:30.479 and the Middle East. But the interesting

00:08:32.320 thing about global systems is that they

00:08:34.000 eventually generate internal

00:08:35.679 contradictions. Wealth concentrates,

00:08:38.159 inequality rises, elite factions emerge

00:08:40.799 with competing interests, domestic

00:08:42.719 populations begin feeling disconnected

00:08:45.040 from the institutions governing them.

00:08:47.200 And once that process accelerates,

00:08:49.040 political systems become emotionally

00:08:50.640 unstable. Okay, look at American

00:08:52.480 politics right now. Everything feels

00:08:54.399 existential. Every election feels like

00:08:56.480 the end of the country. Every side views

00:08:58.640 the other not simply as wrong, but as

00:09:00.720 fundamentally illegitimate. And

00:09:02.640 historically, that is always a warning

00:09:04.320 sign because when internal elite

00:09:06.480 conflict intensifies, long-term

00:09:08.720 strategic thinking begins collapsing.

00:09:11.120 Political factions become obsessed with

00:09:13.279 defeating each other, even if it weakens

00:09:15.279 the system itself in the process. And

00:09:17.760 this is what people mean when they talk

00:09:19.440 about imperial decline. It does not mean

00:09:21.920 immediate collapse. It means

00:09:23.440 institutional cohesion slowly eroding

00:09:25.680 from within. And once great powers begin

00:09:27.920 turning inward psychologically, regional

00:09:30.560 actors start testing boundaries. Iran

00:09:33.279 sees opportunities. Russia sees

00:09:35.040 opportunities. China sees opportunities.

00:09:37.600 Even middle powers begin behaving more

00:09:40.000 independently because confidence in the

00:09:42.399 existing order weakens. This is why the

00:09:44.800 Middle East feels so unstable right now.

00:09:47.440 Not because the region suddenly became

00:09:49.279 irrational, but because the larger

00:09:51.360 system enforcing stability appears less

00:09:53.839 certain than before. Now think about

00:09:55.839 Israel from this perspective. Israel

00:09:57.920 understands that its long-term security

00:09:59.760 depends on maintaining regional

00:10:01.680 superiority before the balance shifts

00:10:04.000 too far. Time matters enormously here.

00:10:06.880 Demographics matter. Technology matters.

00:10:09.680 Economic alliances matter. Missile

00:10:11.600 capabilities matter. Artificial

00:10:13.360 intelligence matters. Drone warfare

00:10:15.600 matters. Israel cannot simply think

00:10:17.600 about today. Israel has to think 20

00:10:19.760 years ahead, 30 years ahead. Because

00:10:22.399 once regional powers fully equalize

00:10:24.560 technologically, the strategic

00:10:26.320 environment becomes much more dangerous.

00:10:28.720 And Iran understands this too. Which is

00:10:30.880 why Iran invests so heavily in missile

00:10:33.680 systems, drone technology, underground

00:10:35.920 facilities, cyber warfare, and proxy

00:10:38.399 networks. Iran knows it cannot defeat

00:10:40.720 America conventionally. It cannot defeat

00:10:42.880 Israel conventionally. So instead, it

00:10:44.880 builds layered deterrence. Make the cost

00:10:46.800 of attacking Iran unbearably high. That

00:10:49.600 is the strategy, not conquest.

00:10:51.839 Deterrence, survival through escalation

00:10:54.160 risk. Okay. And this is where the

00:10:56.880 nuclear conversation becomes very

00:10:58.560 interesting because people constantly

00:11:00.240 talk about nuclear war as though

00:11:02.160 governments casually want to use these

00:11:04.160 weapons. But nuclear weapons are

00:11:06.079 fundamentally psychological tools. Their

00:11:08.240 primary purpose is deterrence. Once

00:11:10.240 nuclear weapons are actually used, the

00:11:12.320 entire geopolitical landscape changes

00:11:14.720 unpredictably. Financial systems panic,

00:11:17.279 alliances fracture, public psychology

00:11:19.440 changes permanently, every government on

00:11:21.680 Earth immediately begins recalculating

00:11:23.600 its own survival strategy. So when

00:11:25.920 people casually talk about Israel or

00:11:28.240 Iran crossing that threshold, I honestly

00:11:30.399 think they underestimate how terrifying

00:11:32.640 that scenario would be for every major

00:11:34.880 power involved. And this is why most

00:11:37.200 conflicts remain inside controlled

00:11:39.200 escalation patterns. Missile strikes,

00:11:41.920 assassinations, cyber attacks, proxy

00:11:44.880 warfare, economic sanctions,

00:11:47.040 psychological pressure. Each side pushes

00:11:49.440 carefully without fully crossing the

00:11:51.279 line that could trigger uncontrollable

00:11:53.519 consequences. But here's the dangerous

00:11:55.680 part. Every side believes it understands

00:11:58.160 where the line is. Every side believes

00:12:00.320 it controls escalation. And

00:12:02.079 historically, that confidence is exactly

00:12:04.560 what makes major wars possible. Because

00:12:07.120 history is filled with governments that

00:12:09.040 believed they could manage pressure

00:12:10.959 until suddenly events spiraled beyond

00:12:13.680 anyone's control. Europe before World

00:12:15.920 War I looked economically

00:12:17.440 interconnected, too. Trade was booming.

00:12:19.920 Financial systems were integrated. Many

00:12:22.000 intellectuals believed large-scale war

00:12:24.079 had become irrational. Then one

00:12:26.079 assassination triggered alliance systems

00:12:28.399 nobody could fully stop once they

00:12:30.399 activated. Okay. Human beings

00:12:33.040 consistently overestimate their ability

00:12:35.120 to control systems under stress. And

00:12:37.519 honestly, I think this is the real

00:12:38.959 hidden strategy behind Israel and Iran.

00:12:41.680 It is not simply about defeating each

00:12:43.279 other militarily. It is about

00:12:44.880 positioning themselves advantageously

00:12:46.800 inside a changing global order. Both

00:12:49.040 sides understand the world entering the

00:12:51.360 next 20 years may look completely

00:12:53.760 different from the world that existed

00:12:55.600 after the cold war. American dominance

00:12:58.000 may weaken. China may rise further.

00:13:00.320 Energy systems may shift. Artificial

00:13:02.320 intelligence may transform military

00:13:04.240 power. Populations may become more

00:13:06.160 unstable politically. Climate pressures

00:13:08.480 may intensify migration and resource

00:13:10.800 competition. Nobody knows exactly what

00:13:12.800 the future system looks like yet. And

00:13:14.639 when civilizations become uncertain

00:13:16.639 about the future, they become much more

00:13:18.800 aggressive about securing leverage in

00:13:21.120 the present. That is what people are

00:13:23.200 really witnessing right now. Not random

00:13:25.200 chaos. Strategic positioning during

00:13:27.279 systemic transition. Iran wants

00:13:29.279 leverage. Israel wants leverage. America

00:13:31.920 wants leverage. China wants leverage.

00:13:34.000 Russia wants leverage. Everyone senses

00:13:36.160 instability approaching simultaneously.

00:13:38.399 And that creates an incredibly dangerous

00:13:40.240 psychological environment globally. Now

00:13:42.560 connect this to ordinary people. Most

00:13:44.560 citizens are not thinking about

00:13:46.079 civilization cycles or geopolitical

00:13:48.079 architecture. They are thinking about

00:13:50.000 inflation, housing, food prices, debt,

00:13:54.079 jobs, social tension, safety. But all of

00:13:57.760 those pressures are connected to the

00:13:59.440 same larger instability. When global

00:14:01.680 systems weaken, daily life becomes more

00:14:03.760 psychologically stressful. People lose

00:14:05.920 trust in institutions. Conspiracy

00:14:07.920 theories spread. Political polarization

00:14:10.079 increases. Governments become more

00:14:11.760 authoritarian. Social cohesion weakens.

00:14:14.240 Fear spreads through entire populations.

00:14:16.720 And leaders under pressure often become

00:14:18.959 more willing to externalize conflict

00:14:20.959 outward because foreign threats can

00:14:23.199 temporarily unify fractured societies

00:14:25.920 internally. This is one reason

00:14:28.160 geopolitical escalation becomes more

00:14:30.240 likely during periods of domestic

00:14:32.160 instability. External enemies become

00:14:34.320 politically useful. They create

00:14:35.920 narratives of unity, survival, national

00:14:39.120 purpose. And every major power uses this

00:14:42.240 dynamic to some extent because fear is

00:14:44.720 one of the strongest organizing forces

00:14:46.639 in politics. Always has been, probably

00:14:49.600 always will be. So when people ask

00:14:51.680 whether Israel wants to destroy Iran or

00:14:54.399 whether Iran wants to destroy Israel, I

00:14:56.880 think they are still asking the wrong

00:14:58.800 question. The deeper question is what

00:15:00.880 happens when multiple powers

00:15:02.639 simultaneously believe the future global

00:15:04.959 order is becoming unstable? Because

00:15:07.360 instability changes decision-making.

00:15:09.440 Fear changes decision-making.

00:15:11.360 Civilizations under pressure begin

00:15:13.279 taking risks they normally would avoid.

00:15:15.760 And the most dangerous moments in

00:15:17.519 history usually occur when several major

00:15:20.399 actors all convince themselves they are

00:15:23.040 acting defensively at the same time.

00:15:25.440 Iran believes it is defending itself.

00:15:27.680 Israel believes it is defending itself.

00:15:30.000 America believes it is defending its

00:15:31.600 order. China believes it is defending

00:15:33.440 its rise. Russia believes it is

00:15:35.360 defending its sphere of influence.

00:15:37.440 Everyone sees themselves as the rational

00:15:39.680 actor surrounded by threats. And once

00:15:42.079 every major civilization begins thinking

00:15:44.240 that way simultaneously, the margin for

00:15:46.880 miscalculation becomes terrifyingly

00:15:49.519 small. That is the real danger here, not

00:15:52.079 irrationality, rational escalation. Step

00:15:54.800 by step, pressure by pressure, sanction

00:15:57.360 by sanction, missile by missile. Each

00:15:59.759 side calculating, each side adapting,

00:16:02.399 each side convinced it can manage the

00:16:04.720 consequences until suddenly the system

00:16:07.279 reaches a point where nobody actually

00:16:09.600 controls what happens next anymore. And

00:16:11.920 history shows something very

00:16:13.360 uncomfortable about civilizations. Most

00:16:15.920 societies do not recognize the turning

00:16:17.920 point while they are living through it.

00:16:19.920 They only understand later after the

00:16:21.920 systems fail, after the alliances

00:16:23.920 collapse, after the war spread, after

00:16:26.399 the order that once seemed permanent

00:16:28.320 suddenly disappears. That's usually when

00:16:30.720 civilizations finally realized the world

00:16:32.959 they thought was stable had already

00:16:34.880 started ending long before anyone

00:16:37.120 admitted